The planted forests in Brazil were evaluated to cover circa 6. Eucalyptus species represent alone nearly two thirds of the total with 4. Since , the planted area with eucalyptus showed a mean annual increase of 7. In the same period, the pine area increased by 1. The area occupied by other species was rather stable between and ABRAF , while it increased 2.
Thus, a Plantation-BAU scenario was set up using these annual increments.
An additional scenario NPCC-scenario was made considering the Brazilian government proposition Brasil, b of doubling the area of planted forests apparently considering values , implanting another 5. These new plantations are expected to be located on degraded pastures. And the above and below ground biomass is the component evaluated with the highest potential for C input, while lime and fossil fuel are the major C outputs.
When comparing the corresponding areas under BAU and NPCC in the period, the potential for mitigation of global warming by eucalyptus and pine was, respectively, It appeared that the final areas are similar, and therefore the Brazilian proposition is rather conservative, representing a modest mitigation effort of Thus, a more ambitious scenario was built, named Plantation-High. That scenario considers that in the planted area will reach In terms of mean annual additional mitigation when in comparison to BAU, the Plantation-High scenario corresponds to a potential of Mt CO 2 -eq yr -1 , whereas the scenario proposed by the Brazilian government only 5.
Eucalyptus and pine plantations were both considered as "subtropical dry forest" plantation type implemented on degraded land. It is also by far the first contributor for CH 4 emission. Among the components, the non-dairy cattle were responsible for Cattle were also responsible for Agricultural soil sub-sector emissions, regarding N 2 O emissions from direct manure deposition on field by grazing animals. Cerri et al. At the global level, Brazilian cattle are also of prime importance. Therefore, this section will focus only on cattle, although mitigation actions are certainly possible for other animals such as swine and poultry.
The NPCC Brasil, a did not detail mitigation strategies concerning livestock in general and cattle, specifically. It only stated that increasing the quality of pastures may reduce CH 4 emission from cattle. Methane is produced during anaerobic fermentation of carbohydrates, mainly from grass forage. Anaerobic fermentation is the result from the digestive process of herbivore ruminants in the rumen. Methane emissions are impacted by a number of factors including the animal traits e. Therefore, mitigation options would have to address those drivers.
IPCC reviewed the mitigation potentials linked mostly with animal and feed factors and reported that they could be categorized more precisely into improved feeding practices, use of specific agents or dietary additives, and longer term management changes and animal breeding. Concerning feeding practices, IPCC showed that the use of more concentrates commonly increases CH 4 emission on an animal basis, but since it also increases performance milk and meat , the end result is an overall reduction of CH 4 emissions per unit of product litter of milk or kg of meat. Moreover, the enrichment of the diet with concentrates is more efficient with complementary practices related to management e.
Another alternative consists in the use of additives ionophores, propionate precursors, condensed tannins that directly affect methanogenesis inside the rumen, but these options may be limited due to existing barriers regarding their use for instance, ionophores are banned in Europe market , their cost, or adverse effects in meat conversion rates. Choice of the animal might be of prime importance. Pedreira et al. Demarchi et al. Manure management also emits CH 4 and N 2 O.
These emissions are the result of microbial activities from nitrifiers and denitrifiers for N 2 O and methanogens for CH 4. Thus emissions can be related with the temperature, more or less according to the type and form liquid or solid of manure management. Animal manure can be stored either wet e. Methane emissions occur mainly when the manure is managed in liquid forms lagoon or holding tanks or remain wet. Worldwide, intensive livestock systems commonly use liquid manure management due to the large quantity of manure produced and easier handling and collection with pipelines Reid et al.
In Brazil, most intensive livestock systems adopt the dry lot based systems.
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The manure management is important in deriving emissions' coefficient. But this is the result of hypothesis regarding the manure management. Thus, in any process of intensification or confinement of cattle, it will be important to promote the capture and use of CH 4 through anaerobic digesters. The calculation of emissions from enteric fermentation and manure management used the number of cattle head.
Emissions from manure management calculated here correspond to the total of emissions reported under the categories "Manure management" and "Agricultural soils" subcategories under the item "Grazing Animals" used in the BINC and Cerri et al.
Concerning the forecasted evolution of the number of animals in Brazil, the NPCC Brasil, a did not propose or review scenarios. Therefore, the BAU scenario was elaborated considering the statistics of the timeframe, which corresponds to the last year period available. Over this year period the average number of dairy cattle increased from Those mean annual rates were used as the BAU scenario to estimate the size of cattle herd and associated CH 4 emissions.
Total herd size was estimated in The associated emissions using the same methodology and factors as in the BINC were respectively Mitigation scenarios were built considering either a reduction in the cattle herd compared to the BAU option, or the adoption of mitigation strategies proposed by the IPCC These scenarios are named thereafter Low and High The High scenario is not overly optimistic if deforestation of the Amazon is reduced as forecasted, because there is an evident synergy in slowing down deforestation rates and slowing down the annual increase of herd size.
In , emissions from enteric fermentation of cattle would be respectively for the Low and High scenarios The cumulative emissions for the period would be 3, Default EX-ACT calculations were performed Table 3 to recalculate emissions from enteric fermentation and manure management for different periods using the herd numbers under the BAU option and under the different mitigation scenarios. Concerning the adoption of technical mitigation strategies, the three alternatives considered in EX-ACT Bernoux et al.
The amount of GHG mitigated under all scenarios for the different dynamics are summarized in Table 4. Some measures might not be additive when applied simultaneously, such as the option A and option B, but this is probably not the case with option C. However, options were not combined in order to avoid overestimation of the reduction potential. The goal of the Brazilian Environment Ministry is to increase the area under no-tillage NT from 28 million ha to 40 million ha until , which represents a conversion of 12 million ha from full tillage FT systems to conservationist systems.
However, the annual rates of such an increase have not been specified, neither have the regions in which it will take place. Therefore, to estimate the potential of GHG mitigation from NT adoption in Brazil, the following assumptions were taken into account:. Considering the assumptions described above, the amount in CO 2 -eq that can be sequestered by the adoption of NT until was estimated. In addition to this initial scenario named here as "Committed Mitigation" , two other scenarios were considered: one with half of the increase in the area under NT Low Mitigation , which means that in only 34 million ha would be under NT; and a second scenario considering doubling the increase, i.
Table 5 shows the rates of GHG emissions or removals associated with the soil as well as with the use of machinery in agricultural practices in both tillage systems i.
Likewise, CH 4 is 8. The conversion of 12 million ha into the NT system until Committed mitigation scenario may represent a removal of The other two scenarios can be used to illustrate the mitigation potential and emphasize the importance of implementing or not the committed mitigation scenario. For example, if the adoption of NT is encouraged and 24 instead 12 million ha are converted to NT until , the gain can be doubled, which means Table 2.
Yet, it is important to highlight that SOC storage rate, which is the main contributor to the mitigation potential of no tillage system Table 6 represents only the C storage in the top 20cm soil profile. Thus, it can be suggested that the SOC gain could be greater if the whole soil profile was evaluated.
NT system presents several benefits when compared with FT systems. However, soil C accumulation in NT systems can be higher when associated with integrated management systems, such as the implementation of integrated crop-livestock systems under no tillage ICLNT. ICLNT includes the diversification of activities by strategic integration of pastures and agriculture in order to benefit both. Associating the increased levels of soil fertility in the crop areas under NT system, with the enhanced capacity of well-managed pastures of storing C into the soil, it is expected that results would generate not only a large increase in soil C stocks but also a reduction of CO 2 emissions to the atmosphere Carvalho et al.
Salton and Carvalho et al. In addition to the mentioned increase in soil C stocks, the ICLNT system results in improved land use efficiency, demanding less land for agricultural expansion, and consequently, reducing deforestation rates. Rice has an important role in methane emissions, caused by organic matter decomposition in anaerobic conditions IPCC, In Brazil, emissions from rice production amounted to 5. Historically, rice production has increased mainly due to improved technology.
From to , there was an increase of 2. The projection for is that 12 Mt will be produced in 2. Although rice field methane emissions in Brazil are relatively small, the adoption of different water management systems can result in even lower emissions. Sass et al. In addition, multiple drains two to three days every three weeks throughout the growing season reduced emissions to negligible values.
Considering that the area under irrigated rice will remain constant until and that permanently flooded areas would revert to periodically drained systems Sass et al. The sugarcane production area in Brazil reached 7. Two projections of growth were considered to estimate the need for new areas of sugarcane in order to supply the bioethanol and sugar demand for NPCC indicates that it will be necessary to produce 73 Mm 3 1 st and 2 nd generation to supply the Brazilian market in Brasil, a.
Burning leaves and tops in order to facilitate sugarcane harvest has been a common practice in Brazil. However, due to environmental and economic reasons, manually harvested, burned sugarcane has been progressively replaced by mechanically harvested cane with maintenance of the crop residues on the field.
There exists a positive correlation between the maintenance of sugarcane trash and the increase in soil organic carbon SOC content, influenced by time since adoption of the unburned harvest, soil texture and soil disturbance Cerri et al. The average annual increase in soil carbon stocks down to 30 cm was 1. Since soil C sequestration occurs in the agricultural phase of production, regardless of the final processed product sugar or ethanol , thus the total sugarcane areas were considered in the calculation.
Considering the period, the conservation management of sugarcane residues has the potential to sequester Mt CO 2 -eq under the NEP scenario, and Mt CO 2 -eq under the NPCC scenario in the form of soil carbon in the first 30 cm. The program went through a stagnation period between to but was reactivated soon thereafter. From its beginning until , Mm 3 of bioethanol anhydrous and hydrated were produced, avoiding the emission of Mt CO 2 -eq to the atmosphere Cerri et al, Between and , the production of first generation bioethanol increased at a rate of 9.
To achieve both scenarios, two important factors must occur: i the development of technologies for 2 nd generation bioethanol production and ii an expansion in sugarcane production areas Brasil, The 2 nd generation bioethanol production will account for 20 Mm 3 until , increasing the current productivity from 0. To reach this amount, an increase from to 17, Mg of biomass will be needed, which represents a change from 0.
The sugarcane expansion will occur differently on both scenarios as shown at Table 8. The NEP scenario implies an increase of 3. Expansion will consider the 'Sugarcane Agroecological Zoning', in which areas protected by Brazilian environmental law such as the Amazon and Pantanal biomes will not be used Embrapa, For offset estimates, both scenarios were considered. According to NEP, Brazil will consume around Mm 3 of 1 st generation bioethanol and 20 Mm 3 of 2 nd generation cellulosic bioethanol for energy proposes over the next decade Brasil, Considering that 1 m 3 of anhydrous bioethanol will avoid 2.
In the NPCC scenario, bioethanol consumption will increase significantly until , reaching 63 Mm 3. For the projection, Mm 3 bioethanol 1 st and 2 nd generation will be necessary to supply domestic demand. Besides future projections, Mt CO 2 -eq were already avoided in the period, considering bioethanol for transport, surplus electricity and surplus bagasses. This is a significant amount, considering that all avoided emissions from to added up to Mt CO 2 -eq Cerri et al. In addition to the important role of fossil fuel substitution, other components of bioethanol production help mitigate GHG emissions.
Bagasse, a fibrous residue remaining from sugarcane crushing, is used to generate electric power and steam for processing ethanol. Ethanol plants, through improvements in boiler efficiency, have increasingly exported bagasse-derived surplus electricity. This happens especially in periods of the year when hydroelectric dams are at low levels, thus substituting other energy sources such as thermal plants. Therefore, co-generation represents an increasingly significant role in avoiding GHG emissions from power generation.
Thus, a preliminary estimate showed that there was a need to produce 0. Figure 4 represents an estimate of the requirement for biodiesel production to supply domestic demand by Estimates for this sector were not so different because the calculations are performed based on projections of the federal government. According to demand studies prepared by the NEP in Brazil, annual production of biodiesel until was estimated at 3. Data of NPCC were slightly higher second scenario , in which annual production until was estimated at 4.
Brazil is seen as a future leader in biodiesel production due to its excellent climate and soil conditions, and vast territorial extension appropriate for a variety of oil crops. Within this context, some oilseeds like soybean, palm, castor bean and sunflower have received greater focus by the National Program for Production and Use of Biodiesel PNPB, Besides oil crops, a promising biodiesel feedstock is beef tallow. Each animal slaughtered provides an average of 15 kg of tallow RBB, This calculation considered the production of each oilseed in the Brazilian territory Brasil, and the amount of animals slaughtered until in Brazil.
We assumed a decrease in the use of soybean as feedstock in the long term, and an increase in the participation of other crops, especially palm. The total of biodiesel production in the period was calculated as The baseline was estimated by considering the differences in combustion efficiency between biodiesel and petroleum diesel. Calculation using calorific values and densities of biodiesel and petroleum diesel showed that the energy content of 1 m 3 biodiesel is equal to that of 0. The quantity of biodiesel from tallow and oil crops would replace Considering that 1 m 3 of biodiesel will avoid 3.
According to the National Energy Plan Brasil, , Brazil will need to expand the area planted with oilseeds to meet its domestic demand for biodiesel production. Livestock intensification in currently underutilized pastureland could allow the expansion of grains and oil seeds. Table 8 presents an estimate of the expansion area needed to meet the demand for biodiesel production until , considering the capacity of oilseed production IBGE, On November 13 th , Brazilian authorities announced that the country will target a reduction in its greenhouse gas emissions of between Brazilian Environment Minister said that the majority of Brazil's emission cuts will come from slowing deforestation Total cuts would be between This will also be a time for nations to take stock of their individual progress and a chance to help close the gap by increasing their pledges.
But, how will progress toward Paris Agreement goals be determined? The best indicator of the success and vitality of the Paris Agreement are the very measurements of atmospheric concentrations of CO 2 and other GHGs that stimulated action on climate change. Continuous, consistent, and accurate GHG concentration measurements at local, national, and global scales have value beyond their original role as the harbinger calling attention to the climate change challenge.
Measured GHG concentrations are the ultimate indicators of emission reduction policy successes. Regardless of the GHG emission reduction policies and measures applied, effective implementation, both in the short- and long-term, will require consistent, reliable and timely information on the magnitude of GHG concentrations, their sources and sinks, and their trends over time. GHG concentrations and their trends over time are the ultimate way for individual governments to clearly gauge whether their nationally-determined actions are adding up to the desired global outcomes.
The Global Atmosphere Watch GAW Programme of WMO was established in in recognition of the need for improved scientific understanding of the increasing influence of human activities on atmospheric composition and subsequent environmental impacts. GAW measurements of ozone-depleting gases have played and continue to play a critical role in the successful response of the Montreal Protocol to stratospheric ozone depletion and the increase of ultraviolet UV radiation.
Historically, GHG measurements have been made in remote locations that optimized the sampling frequency of global background concentrations. In the atmospheric, carbon cycle and climate change science communities produced a number of studies on the potential for atmospheric GHG concentration measurements and model analyses to independently evaluate and improve the accuracy of GHG emission inventories.
These studies concluded that a realization of this approach would require additional investment in research, increasing the density of well-calibrated atmospheric GHG measurements and improving atmospheric transport modelling and data assimilation capabilities. A planning team comprised of scientists and stakeholders from developed and developing countries in all six WMO regions was established to develop the IG 3 IS Concept Paper. IG 3 IS will work closely with the inventory builders and other stakeholders who need to track GHG emissions to develop methodologies for how atmospheric GHG concentration measurements the top-down can be combined with spatially and temporally explicit emission inventory data the bottom-up to better inform and manage emission reduction policies and measures.
GAW GHG measurement network and standards will be essential for IG 3 IS success, but the focus, and location of measurement sites, must expand from remote locations to key GHG source regions where emission reduction is taking place or is needed. IG 3 IS will focus on existing-use cases for which the scientific and technical skill is proven and on where IG 3 IS information can meet the expressed or previously unrecognized needs of decision-makers who will value the information. IG 3 IS will establish and propagate standards and guidelines for methods that produce consistent and intercomparable information, such as those GAW already produces, for concentration measurement standards.
Over time, the IG 3 IS framework must be capable of promoting and accepting advancing technical capabilities for example, new satellite observations and sensors , continually improving the reach and quality of the information and increasing user confidence. The IG 3 IS team defined four implementation objectives, the first three being: 1 reduce uncertainty of national emission inventory reporting to UNFCCC; 2 locate and quantify previously unknown emission reduction opportunities such as fugitive methane emissions from industrial sources; and 3 provide subnational entities such as large urban source regions megacities with timely and quantified information on the amounts, trends and attribution by sector of their GHG emissions to evaluate and guide progress towards emission reduction goals.
It will by necessity be implemented at national and global scales, but it is less mature than the other three objectives at this time. One reason is that although IG3IS has a vision for how to support stocktaking, the Paris Agreement does not specify how the global stocktake will be conducted. Another reason is that accounting for fossil fuel CO 2 via top-down methods lack the maturity to match the accuracy of IPCC TFI Tier 3 protocols for estimating fossil fuel CO 2 emission inventories at the national scale. This is because atmospheric measurements of CO 2 contain a significant biospheric signal and are therefore necessary, but not sufficient, to infer fossil fuel CO 2 emissions.
Now, Article 13 paragraph 7 of the Paris Agreement states:. Each Party shall regularly provide the following information: a A national inventory report of anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of greenhouse gases, prepared using good practice methodologies accepted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and agreed upon by the Conference of the Parties serving as the meeting of the Parties to this Agreement.
These combine source-specific emission factors with statistical activity data, for example, the number and type of coal burning plants or cars on the road — bottom-up methods.
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Emissions of carbon dioxide from the use of homogenous fossil fuels and predictable processes can be estimated accurately where well-developed statistical systems are present, but other more heterogeneous and dispersed sources such as methane from waste management and natural gas production and pipeline transmission are more difficult.
Atmospheric measurements and model analyses can support the process by providing the useful additional constraint of top-down quantification where the fluxes are estimated through inverse modelling of observed concentrations. Switzerland and the United Kingdom, and to a lesser extent Australia, already make use of top-down analyses to guide improvements to their bottom-up emission inventory reporting. An IG3IS near-term objective is to propagate these good practices and establish quality metrics for these top-down methods, how they can be compared to GHG inventories developed from bottom-up methodologies, and how the results can be used to target improvements in bottom-up inventory data inputs.
Natural gas, composed mostly of methane, has the potential to be a far more climate-friendly energy source than coal or oil. But the problem with methane is that if it gets into the atmosphere without being burned it becomes a very potent GHG — much more potent, molecule-to-molecule, than carbon dioxide.
Exploring these solutions and applying them to new types of sites or emissions profiles — for example offshore platforms — can potentially provide further reductions. IG 3 IS also intends to extend these approaches to other methane-emitting sectors such as flooded lands, agriculture, landfills and wastewater, and develop sector-appropriate methodologies in the medium term. These sectors have close links with urban emissions as they are much more likely to be located in or closer to cities than oil and gas extraction sites.
These "super-emitters" — large point sources thought to contribute disproportionately to anthropogenic methane emissions — are logical mitigation targets. A tiered observing strategy, involving satellite, aircraft, and mobile and tall tower surface measurements, has proven to be effective in identifying these super-emitters and their contribution to regional methane emissions.
Gaby Petron with her mobile GHG measurement laboratory studying methane leakages. The Lima—Paris Action Agenda of the Paris Agreement has formalized a role for sub-national entities such as cities large urban source regions. Cities and their power plants are the largest sources of GHG emissions from human activity. In order to provide a diagnosis of urban emissions at scales relevant to urban decision-making and enable identification of low-carbon or carbon mitigation opportunities, cities need better information about their emitting landscape.
Such information should not only reflect scientifically accurate methods, but place emissions at space and time scales relevant to urban decision-making and identify key functional characteristics sector, sub-sector, fuel. This work has established an urban GHG information system that combines atmospheric monitoring, data mining and model algorithms. IG 3 IS will redesign this information system to be deployable to different parts of the world, particularly in the low- and middle-income countries where GHG information needs are greatest and capacity is limited.
Several studies have shown the potential to better quantify the GHG emissions and trends of cities with atmospheric measurement networks and high-resolution inverse model analyses. However, there is evidence that by combining inverse model analysis of a sufficiently dense and well-distributed network of measurements with spatially explicit prior knowledge of sources, urban emissions of fossil fuel CO 2 can be better quantified.
While trends in total emissions of fossil fuel CO 2 from cities are valuable, city planners and managers will need sector-specific information to guide them to emission reduction opportunities. In emerging economies that may have inadequate bottom-up statistical knowledge of emissions for their national area, large urban source regions and forested landscapes, the IG 3 IS top-down atmospheric measurement inversion approaches can prove to be especially valuable sources of baseline and trend information.
Total flux estimates over a day period, for four 6-hour periods, for anthropogenic emissions red , biogenic fluxes green and the total blue. The prior estimates are shown as open rectangles, while the posterior is shown as filled rectangles. Uncertainty reduction is evident for the morning and afternoon time periods. This change is driven by fossil fuel and land-use change emissions that increase atmospheric concentrations of CO 2 and other GHGs.
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